I continue to follow events in and around Iraqi Kurdistan with some interest (in addition to concurrent, related events in Syria). Here are the headlines.
Kurds offer talks with Baghdad over airport, banks ban (al Arabiya)
Can Putin stop Erdogan from shutting down Iraqi Kurdish pipeline? (al Monitor)
Iraqi Kurds send reinforcements to Kirkuk amid army 'threats' (BBC)
How Turkey's nuclear plant could curb KRG ambitions (al Monitor)
Kurds on high alert as Iraqi forces mass near Kirkuk (al Jazeera)
Kurd fighters in Iraq briefly block roads to Mosul (al Jazeera)
Kurdish VP : Thousands of troops sent to Kirkuk to face ‘Iraq threat’ (al Arabiya)
Why is Israel supporting Kurdish secession from Iraq? (al Jazeera)
No, the Israeli Air Force Won’t Race to Iraqi Kurdistan’s Rescue (War is Boring)
Turkmens unite against Kurdish designs on Kirkuk (al Monitor)
Cascading Crisis in Iraqi Kurdistan (Institute for the Study of War)
King Salman stresses kingdom’s support for united Iraq in phone call to Abadi (al Arabiya)
King Salman makes telephone call to Iraqi PM Abadi (al Arabiya)
Turkey’s Erdogan says may shut Iraqi border any moment (al Arabiya)
Turkey ‘ready to cooperate with Iraq’ against Kurdish militants (al Arabiya)
Turkey pledges to back Baghdad against Kurds (al Monitor)
How Strongly is NATO Ally Turkey Pivoting to Russia and Iran? (Christian Science Monitor, via Small Wars Journal)
Deal with Iran boosts Turkey’s hopes of trading in national currency (al Monitor)
Erdogan, Rouhani stand together against Iraqi Kurdish state (al Monitor)
Iraq says Kurds brought PKK fighters to Kirkuk in ‘declaration of war’ (al Arabiya)
Peshmerga Command: Iraqi Military Attack on Kirkuk is ‘Declaration of War’ (Rudaw via Small Wars Journal)
Peshmerga: Baghdad to pay heavy price for declaring war (al Jazeera)
Kurdish infighting opened way for Iraqi advances (AFP)
How a shocking reversal of fortunes unfolded in Kirkuk (al Jazeera)
Kurdistan never intended to engage in war with Iraq, foreign minister says (al Arabiya)
UN concerned by reports of forced displacement of Kurds in N.Iraq (al Arabiya)
Iraqi, Kurd forces in Kirkuk standoff as tensions rise (al Jazeera)
Iraq conflict: Peshmerga 'deadline to leave Kirkuk' passes (BBC)
Clashes between Iraqi, Kurdish troops close to Kirkuk city (AFP)
Iraqi forces launch 'major' Kirkuk operation (al Jazeera)
Iraq army seizes Altun Kupri from Kurdish Peshmerga (al Jazeera)
Kirkuk: Iraqi forces capture key sites from Kurds (BBC)
Kirkuk: Iraqi forces seize largest oilfields near city (BBC)
Iraqi forces gain control of main Kirkuk military base from Kurds (al Arabiya)
Iraqi forces complete takeover of Kirkuk province after clashing with Kurds (al Arabiya)
Iraq takes disputed areas as Kurds 'withdraw to 2014 lines' (BBC)
Kurdish forces withdraw to June 2014 lines: Iraqi army commander (al Arabiya)
Iraq Kurds: Army claims full control of Kirkuk province (BBC)
Iraq's military declares mission accomplished in Kirkuk (al Jazeera)
Baghdad says mission accomplished in Kurd operation (AFP)
Iran denies reports Tehran closed border with northern Iraq (al Arabiya)
Iran wary of Trump’s plans in Iraqi Kurdistan (al Monitor)
Iran sees challenge of Kurdish referendum as opportunity (al Monitor)
Turkey, Iran could unite to overcome their Kurdish worries (al Monitor)
Iran’s Soleimani reportedly in Kurdistan as Iraq denies setting Kirkuk deadline (al Arabiya)
Iran Quds commander pays respects at Talabani's tomb as Kirkuk crisis escalates (al Monitor)
Iran denies role in recapture of Kirkuk (al Monitor)
How Iran helped Baghdad seize back Kirkuk (al Monitor)
The fall of Kirkuk and U.S. Kurdish allies: Iran has completed its strategic reversal of America’s regional influence (Washington Times)
The United States Serves Up Kurdistan to Iran on a Silver Platter (Tablet Magazine)
Assessing impact of shifting Iran-KRG relations (al Monitor)
Abadi orders the withdrawal of all military forces from Kirkuk (al Arabiya)
Iraqi president Masum calls for urgent Baghdad-Kurdish dialogue (al Arabiya)
Baghdad court issues arrest warrant for Iraqi Kurd VP (al Arabiya)
Court in Iraq orders arrest of Kurdistan VP Kosrat Rasul (BBC)
Congress threatens to withhold arms from Baghdad (al Monitor)
US strategy sees Raqa fall but leaves Kurds in lurch (AFP)
Iraq conflict: Kurdish leaders refuse to reject referendum result (BBC)
Despite potential trade sanctions, Kurds continue with exports (Christian Science Monitor)
What price have Iraqi Kurds paid for secession vote? (al Jazeera)
What does the future hold for Iraq's Kurds? (al Jazeera)
Is the Dream Of Kurdish Independence Now Over? (Voice of America via Small Wars Journal)
"Phil-Kurdism" Like Philhellenism? The Role and Impact of the Western Volunteers Alongside Kurds (Small Wars Journal)
Since I last posted on this topic, the Kurdish Regional Government reiterated a pre-referendum claim to the Iraqi city of Kirkuk, which led Iraqi national forces (suspected to have consisted largely of Iranian-sponsored Shiite militias) to launch a military operation to retake the city and its surroundings. Iran has denied having played any role in those events, though other actors and commentators disagree. I'm personally of the mind that the KRG may have intentionally fallen back from Kirkuk, partly to give the various Peshmerga factions something to rally around that wasn't traditional Kurdish territory; but also to give the government in Baghdad an opportunity to overplay their hand in the secession dispute by escalating the conflict. In one of my prior posts, I linked to a BBC interview with KRG President Massoud Barzani in which he said:
"When have we ever had stability and security that we should be concerned about losing it? When was Iraq so united that we should be worried about breaking its unity? Those who are saying this are just looking for excuses to stop us... We were hoping the constitution could unite us, but it didn't happen. So many rules were neglected. So now it is our right to seek independence."
The thing is, regardless of where you stand on the Kurdish referendum or the territorial integrity of the Iraqi nation-state, Barzani has a point. As of 2011, a viable political settlement was in place to balance the interests of Iraq's three largest population groups: the Shiite Arabs, the Sunni Arabs, and the Kurds. I watched the American withdrawal from a vantage point in the Gulf in 2011; and I was there in early 2012 when Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki, lacking American support, found himself subject to influence from Tehran. The result was the violation of the Iraqi constitution, a collapse of the political settlement, the persecution of Sunni Arabs and their leaders by Baghdad, and the de facto abdication of Baghdad's obligations to the Kurds. In the case of the Sunni Arabs, this left them receptive to the promises from DAESH, empty though they turned out to be, that they had learned their lesson and were ready to bring Iraq's Sunni population into a new caliphate. In the case of the Kurds, they found themselves under assault by DAESH, without the backup that Baghdad owed them. That included protecting Kirkuk from DAESH while cities like Mosul were overrun, forcing Arab forces - including a lot of heavy lifting by Tehran-sponsored Shiite militias - to root DAESH out, house by house.
That's the history of the dispute, in a nutshell. How it will play out in the coming weeks and months is anyone's guess. America has a vested interest in maintaining good relations with the Kurds, but supporting their secession efforts puts Washington at odds with Ankara, Baghdad, and Tehran. Moscow has an interest in keeping Kurdish oil flowing, but maintains a tight relationship with Iran (particularly in Syria, but also by way of Iran's controversial nuclear program), and is working to drive a wedge between Turkey and the rest of the NATO alliance. Baghdad has a vested interest in retaining the oil-rich areas around Kirkuk; and in avoiding the precedent of Iraqi Kurdistan seceding. Tehran also harbors a vested interest in avoiding that precedent, as Iran's own Kurdish minority in the region bordering Iraqi Kurdistan are watching the secession effort with great interest. The same goes for Ankara. It leaves a difficult situation for the folks in Erbil to manage.
I'll keep track of further developments and post as appropriate.
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